From the perspective of cost, PTA, LLDPE, and PVC are all chemical products that originate from crude oil and should have strong correlation with crude oil. However, in addition to being affected by cost factors, each link in the upper reaches of the industry chain is also affected by the relationship between supply and demand. When the effect of cost and supply and demand tends to be consistent, crude oil and chemical products show a strong positive correlation. On the contrary, the correlation is greatly weakened. After the Spring Festival, chemical products rose in different degrees under the recovery of downstream demand expectations and higher crude oil prices. However, afterwards, the demand for fatigue gradually revealed, and the rise in chemical products was struggling.
At present, the US crude oil has fallen back, and it is still necessary to boost demand for chemical products as it continues to rise in the later stages. From the current situation of supply and demand of various varieties, PVC is mainly affected by the weak regulation of domestic real estate regulation. However, if the northern spring demand starts, PVC demand is expected to improve in stages. The arrival of LLDPE by the petrochemical enterprises on the supply side, and the reduction in the volume of imports, has resulted in a relative decline in the supply. In terms of demand, the seasonal season of plastic film consumption in spring is expected to form a demand support for LLDPE and a strong performance in chemical products. This year, PTA ushered in the peak period of production capacity since 2006, and the demand for terminal textile and apparel has shrunk significantly. Industrial chain polyester, grey cloth, clothing and other aspects are all backlog of a large number of inventory, to inventory pressure. Before the PTA met the high resistance and fell into the adjustment. In the short term, the demand for the peak season in March and April is expected to have some support for PTA prices.
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