With strong end-market support and upcoming technology-driven regulations, vocational truck buyers are not only eager but also well-positioned to start upgrading their fleets ahead of schedule. This is highlighted in the latest release of the *North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook*, which shows that fleet modernization is gaining momentum.
"Although one month doesn’t necessarily signal a trend, September’s order numbers indicate that demand for limited production slots between now and early 2027 has already started to build up," said Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT. "While tractor demand remains uncertain, vocational truck production is expected to continue rising through 2025."
Vieth added, "We’ve talked extensively this year about the split in the Class 8 market. On the other hand, the U.S. and Canadian tractor markets are still flooded with capacity due to strong retail sales in 2024, which have kept freight rates from rising significantly so far. After a 10-quarter decline, carrier profitability saw a small rebound in Q3, driven by steady freight volumes and gradual reduction in available capacity. As we anticipate a slowdown in tractor sales in early 2025, one key element of the recovery—capacity rationalization—is finally starting to take shape."
"Even as we recognize the broader economic factors fueling demand for heavy vocational equipment, the tractor market continues to face pressure," Vieth concluded.
### NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The North American Commercial Vehicle (NA CV) Forecast Report provides a comprehensive view of the trucking industry's future. It includes current market conditions, tactical and strategic analysis, and long-term forecasts extending five years out. Designed to help OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other stakeholders make informed decisions, the report covers key demand drivers such as forward-looking activity metrics, orders, and backlogs. It also includes build and retail sales forecasts, along with insights into medium- and heavy-duty trucks, tractors, and trailers. The report delves into macroeconomic trends across North America, freight and carrier performance, used equipment valuation trends, and the impact of regulatory changes on the industry.
### About ACT Research
ACT Research is a leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Their insights are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Its executives have received numerous accolades, including appointments to the National Association for Business Economics and the National Private Truck Council. ACT Research has been recognized for its accurate economic forecasts, including the Lawrence R. Klein Award and multiple top economic outlook honors from outlets like the Wall Street Journal and USA Today. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.
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