The LED industry boomed. After the investment trough in 2012, the investment scale of the LED industry in 2013 increased significantly. It is predicted that the compound growth rate of the industry's total output value will reach 26.39 in 2013-2015, and will reach 500 billion in 2015. In the first three quarters of 2013, listed companies with LED-based businesses achieved operating income (arithmetic average) of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2, and gradually fell out of the trough.
Multiple positive factors are superimposed. With the advancement of technology and performance, the advantages of LED lights have become more obvious, complying with the requirements of energy saving and environmental protection. The relevant departments of the state have successively issued a number of strategic plans and important policies conducive to the development of the industry, which have played a positive guiding role in the development of the LED industry.
Downstream lighting demand broke out. 1) The demand for backlight applications has grown steadily. LED backlights have taken a big advantage, among which mobile phone application products have become popular, and notebook computer application products have also become the mainstream of the market. With the upgrading and cost-effective stimulation, global LCD TV sales have grown steadily. 2) Demand for lighting applications is growing rapidly. As luminous efficiency continues to break through and costs fall, LED lighting replaces traditional light sources such as incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps, and LED lighting demand will explode.
Company analysis. 1) Through the dealers, engineering companies, national tenders, etc., a marketing system with complete functions and wide coverage has been formed. 2) Continuously expand LED production capacity, the proportion of LED revenue will continue to increase in the future, and the product structure will be continuously optimized. 3) Strong research and development capabilities, has developed more than 20 national and provincial new products, and won more than 120 national patents, participating in the drafting and formulation of 17 national standards.
Earnings forecast and investment advice. We expect to achieve operating income of 38.6, 43.8, and 4.63 billion yuan in 2014-2016, and achieve net profit of 3.53, 4.36, and 491 million yuan. It is estimated that the basic earnings per share will be 0.55 yuan, 0.68 yuan and 0.76 yuan in 2014-2016, and the corresponding P/E ratios are 30 times, 24 times and 22 times respectively. Maintain an overweight rating.
The risk indicates that the energy-saving lamps are continuously replaced by LED lights, and the gross profit margin and revenue are declining. The gross profit margin of LED products is declining.
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