Coal prices continue to decline and coal industry consolidation accelerates

    In recent days, the coal industry's asset injection and integration events have become increasingly fierce. First, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity announced a private placement of major shareholder asset plans; then Pingmei and Shenma Qiangqiang jointly created China Pingmei Shenma Energy Chemical Group. , Henan Coal Chemical Group (Yongmei Group, Provincial Gas Group), Zhongyuan Coal Chemical Group (Hebi Coal Group, Zhongyuan Dahua), Coking Coal Group created Henan Coal Chemical Group; ST Yincheng Asset Injection Project; SDIC's new set suspension Resource Consolidation Conjecture; Jinniu Energy and Anyuan have announced plans to increase the Group’s assets through private placement.

    Coal prices continued to plummet. As of December 12-8, Datong high-end mixed products fell by 40 yuan from last week and fell to 650 yuan/ton. International coal prices also fell by 2 dollars/ton from last week and fell to 76.09 dollars/ton. Ton, the expected decline in coal prices has also affected the performance of coal stocks. The price of most coal stocks has fallen below the replacement cost, and the lowest P/B ratio is also approaching historically lower prices. Under large circumstances, the injection of assets by major shareholders can obtain the greatest return.

    According to the national industrial planning for the construction of 13 large coal bases, it is necessary to accelerate the formation of large-scale coal groups with a scale of 50 million tons or more. In accordance with this idea, Hebei and Henan have also accelerated the pace of resource integration and reorganization. The footsteps will also affect other provinces such as Shanxi, Shandong and Anhui. Shanxi Province also plans to reduce the number of coal mines from the current 2,800 seats by more than 50% to 1,500 seats within three years after the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”; the scale of coal companies will increase to 3 million tons/year, and the size of single wells in mines will increase. To 670,000 tons/year, such a large force will inevitably benefit large corporations and large corporations.

    The 11.26 Working Conference of the State Council emphasizes that it is necessary to strengthen mergers and reorganizations of enterprises, and at the same time, it must strengthen the state purchasing, storage, and commercial collection and storage of important materials and resources. This also provides a policy support for mergers and acquisitions and asset injections.

    The upstream coal industry is greatly affected by demand, either in short supply or oversupply, while the concentration of coal industry in China is relatively small, which is not conducive to healthy development. The coal industry in China should either form an OPEC-like organization through the coalition. To meet the demand, while maintaining a suitable small coal mine that meets the conditions, to increase marketization; or to strengthen the linkage between coal companies and the downstream industries, and to strengthen the downstream enterprises such as coal companies and electric power companies by setting the supply demand and providing supply and demand. Cooperation, such as coal and electricity joint ventures, the suspension of SDIC Xinji and SDIC power, has also brought this approach to the stage.

    Recently, the coal enterprises have announced asset injection programs one after another, which also makes investors feel a little warm in the down cycle of the coal industry. Although the profit level of listed companies is not yet clear in the cycle of falling coal prices, we believe that in the weak market conditions, This will be an investment theme. This is also the main investment opportunity for the coal industry in the coming years.

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